Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3581…7427
crypto · 324 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
−$890 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$797 · open +$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,237
Realized−$797
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses161 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions14
Markets (closed)310 / 324
History coverage121d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 14 History 310 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$589
7 days+$537
14 days+$340
30 days+$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 66¢ 80¢ $400 $490 +$90 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 81¢ 73¢ $500 $453 −$47 (-9%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $158 $157 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 97¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 21¢ 40¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+93%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 21? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026? No 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $989 +$452 +46%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $161 −$17 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -47%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $151 +$53 +35%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $172 +$62 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $529 +$148 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $111 +$23 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,253 −$100 -4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$24 +24%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $626 −$15 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $61 −$27 -44%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $38 +$23 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $202 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $51 −$3 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $101 +$3 +3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs BALU (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Cl Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $1,319 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 22 $1,030 −$11 -1%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: May 21 $25 +$8 +34%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stag May 21 $101 +$23 +23%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $101 +$20 +20%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs Dynasty (BO3) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr May 19 $51 −$32 -62%
Dota 2: Team NS vs Nix Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group A May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group St May 19 $51 +$26 +52%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bengaluru 3: Christopher Papa vs Petr Bar Biryukov May 19 $110 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $1,520 +$99 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 40% +$496
sports 26% −$1,088
economics 17% +$29
other 15% −$249
world 2% +$81
politics 1% +$20
finance 0% −$8
weather 0% −$40
tech 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 71¢ $101 8m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 26m
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $144 26m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 70¢ $101 28m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 88¢ $201 35m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 74¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 28¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 67¢ $202 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 33¢ $163 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 36¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 36¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 34¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 33¢ $333 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 28¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 68¢ $408 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 71¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 29¢ $47 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $51 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $344 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 26¢ $102 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $77 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 81¢ $275 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 88¢ $301 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 13¢ $137 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $102 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -4.9% -14.0% 52% 48% -1.0%
≤30d 50 -18.6% -26.3% 52% 32% -6.6%
≤90d 233 +0.3% -9.2% 55% 39% -6.3%
all 310 -2.2% -11.5% 52% 37% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 37% -10.5%
10% -20.0% 27% -19.1%
15% -27.7% 20% -26.9%
20% -34.8% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,236.62 · official $1,236.62 (match) · 865 history records