trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 44¢ | 44¢ | $13 | $13 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $36 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 11 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? | Jan 31 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? | Dec 29 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Dec 18 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Dec 16 | $29 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Oct 02 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Oct 01 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no | Oct 01 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sep 30 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? | Sep 30 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sep 29 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 29 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 29 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Sep 10 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump be impeached in 2025? | Sep 09 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 27 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 27 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Aug 26 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? | Aug 26 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? | Aug 24 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Aug 24 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Aug 23 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? | Aug 23 | $39 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | Aug 22 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 50% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 50% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 50% | 0% | -10.4% |
| all | 25 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 48% | 4% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.8% | 4% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -17.5% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -25.5% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -32.8% | 0% | -33.1% |