Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3585…d917 tech 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$7
politics 29% −$5
sports 17% −$4
tech 16% +$2
crypto 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 16% 0% -9.7%
all 32 +0.5% -9.1% 28% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$609) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage179d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $111 +$2 +2%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 13 $1,063 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 13 $1,069 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $1,073 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 14 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 14 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $501 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $501 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 14 $502 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $24 $0 +1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $24 $0 -0%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Mar 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 31 $11 $0 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 15 $22 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 22 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $113 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $112 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $112 3h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $111 28d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,060 35d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,063 35d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,059 35d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,061 35d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $1,066 35d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $1,069 35d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,069 35d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,070 35d
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,069 35d
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,073 35d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,073 35d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,074 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $113 58d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $112 63d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $112 63d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $112 63d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $112 63d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $497 63d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $497 63d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $497 63d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $498 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $498 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $499 63d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $499 63d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $500 63d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $500 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.79 · official $112.79 (match) · 76 history records