Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
35 0x3587…23ad sports 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,498 (+2%) realized +$3,836 · open +$662
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%104W / 99L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$1,069per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$15,545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$3,411
politics 24% +$2,556
sports 11% +$789
other 9% −$2,058
economics 8% −$212
crypto 0% −$123
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -52.8% -57.3% 33% 33% -51.5%
≤30d 3 -52.8% -57.3% 33% 33% -51.5%
≤90d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 64% 55% -20.6%
all 203 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 43% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 43% -7.9%
10% -22.9% 38% -16.7%
15% -30.3% 33% -24.8%
20% -37.2% 28% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$330 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$15,545
Realized+$3,836
Unrealized+$662
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses104 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions11
Markets (closed)203 / 214
History coverage610d
Avg bet$1,069
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $11,092 $11,408 +$315 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 80¢ 94¢ $2,000 $2,354 +$354 (+18%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 69¢ 68¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $100 $143 +$43 (+43%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $140 $108 −$32 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 38¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -81%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $43 −$43 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$8 +23%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 13 $76 +$2 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $5,691 −$5,615 -99%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Apr 06 $100 +$56 +56%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $18,212 +$2,024 +11%
Spread: England (-1.5) Apr 01 $300 +$155 +52%
Pistons vs. Thunder Mar 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $216 +$286 +133%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 26 $100 +$116 +116%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 19 $16,996 +$1,181 +7%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Wizards vs. Magic Mar 13 $200 +$35 +18%
Pacers vs. Kings Mar 11 $1,000 −$994 -99%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 10 $200 +$74 +37%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Mar 09 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea Mar 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Pacers vs. Lakers Mar 07 $183 +$64 +35%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $16,500 +$868 +5%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 05 $200 +$56 +28%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Mar 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Mar 02 $200 +$41 +20%
Raptors vs. Wizards Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $1,300 +$991 +76%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $13,829 +$966 +7%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $100 −$61 -61%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) Feb 25 $200 +$204 +102%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $11,689 +$615 +5%
Magic vs. Clippers Feb 23 $100 +$270 +270%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $1,000 +$111 +11%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $10,823 +$561 +5%
Clippers vs. Lakers Feb 22 $100 +$38 +38%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $100 +$67 +67%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Feb 20 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 19 $8,300 +$458 +6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Feb 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Feb 14 $370 −$370 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks Feb 12 $100 +$23 +24%
Spurs vs. Lakers Feb 11 $120 −$120 -100%
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? Feb 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Feb 09 $2,606 +$357 +14%
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election? Feb 09 $1,000 +$277 +28%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japan Feb 09 $3,000 +$165 +6%
Will the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 J Feb 08 $1,063 +$481 +45%
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the second-most seats in the 202 Feb 08 $1,000 +$62 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 08 $121 −$120 -99%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $506 −$385 -76%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Feb 06 $100 +$72 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $505 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,014 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,006 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $43 18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $4 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $35 21h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 8? BUY Down 98¢ $76 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No $76 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 98¢ $5,691 71d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15,000 76d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 76d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 76d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 76d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 76d
Pistons vs. Thunder BUY Pistons 18¢ $7 78d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Japan 66¢ $300 78d
Will Japan win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $216 81d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $216 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $18,212 86d
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA BUY Dominican Rep. 46¢ $200 94d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $14,996 98d
Pacers vs. Kings SELL Pacers $6 98d
Pacers vs. Kings BUY Pacers 91¢ $1,000 98d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $1,000 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,544.82 · official $15,544.92 (match) · 721 history records