Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3589…88e6 other 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 247L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$38
sports 19% −$17
politics 9% −$5
culture 8% −$9
economics 8% −$7
crypto 5% −$17
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 161 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 262 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage148d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 26 $260 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $338 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 25 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 25 $176 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 25 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 24 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $185 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $493 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $638 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $155 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $156 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $318 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $261 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 20 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $180 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $657 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $772 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $134 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $491 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $275 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $262 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $270 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $140 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $272 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $678 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $305 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $199 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $693 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $52 2m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 4h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 6h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $53 8h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $53 9h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $53 11h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 16h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 18h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $53 18h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $53 19h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 25h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 27h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $53 31h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $54 32h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 34h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 37h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 37h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 39h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 40h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 41h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 46h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1494 history records