Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x358b…3722 weather 808 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$4,551 (+42%) realized +$2,723 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%191W / 605L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days+$598
14 days+$1,182
30 days+$1,602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$2,730
other 1% −$16
sports 0% +$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +21.4% +9.9% 24% 20% +30.8%
≤30d 440 +7.6% -2.7% 20% 19% +13.4%
≤90d 796 +1.7% -8.0% 24% 22% +7.7%
all 796 +1.7% -8.0% 24% 22% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 22% +7.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 21% -2.6%
15% -24.8% 19% -12.0%
20% -32.2% 17% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$8 · ×4.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$2,723
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses191 / 605
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)796 / 808
History coverage81d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 796 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+88%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? No 31¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-87%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? Yes 27¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 9? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on May 2? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 28? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 28? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +216%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +234%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $32 +$339 +1056%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 +$32 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$100 +576%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$22 +2131%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$39 +3137%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 14m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 31¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 41¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 89¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 54¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.79 · official $19.70 (match) · 3500 history records