Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x3593…aa62 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$441 (-7%) realized −$501 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,013per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$4,828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$199
sports 12% −$586
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.9% -14.8% 75% 75% -40.5%
≤30d 4 -5.9% -14.8% 75% 75% -40.5%
≤90d 4 -5.9% -14.8% 75% 75% -40.5%
all 4 -5.9% -14.8% 75% 75% -40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 75% -40.5%
10% -23.0% 25% -46.2%
15% -30.4% 25% -51.4%
20% -37.3% 0% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$603 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4,828
Realized−$501
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,013
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $4,500 $4,558 +$58 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $268 $270 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $603 −$603 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$99 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $68 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $4,500 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 81¢ $503 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 85¢ $100 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 81¢ $101 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $602 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,828.12 · official $4,828.12 (match) · 12 history records