Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x359d…206e crypto 65 markets active 11h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-8%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$12
other 14% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 27% -18.3%
≤30d 65 -14.7% -22.8% 45% 26% -19.3%
≤90d 65 -14.7% -22.8% 45% 26% -19.3%
all 65 -14.7% -22.8% 45% 26% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 26% -19.3%
10% -30.2% 18% -27.0%
15% -36.9% 17% -34.1%
20% -43.1% 14% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +58%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records