Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x359f…17d4 crypto 49 markets active 3h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$724 (-0%) realized −$722 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%47W / 1L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,881per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$960
7 days−$960
14 days−$942
30 days−$942
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$107
world 42% −$944
other 9% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 75% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 91% 0% -10.6%
all 48 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$4,090) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1,447 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$470
Realized−$722
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses47 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage133d
Avg bet$3,881
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $472 $470 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39,899 −$1,447 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $39,364 +$487 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $489 +$17 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 19? May 19 $488 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 15? May 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on May 12? May 12 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on May 12? May 12 $321 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on April 30? May 09 $509 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 15? Apr 28 $509 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on April 2? Apr 13 $309 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 30? Mar 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on March 5? Mar 04 $224 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on March 5? Mar 04 $284 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on March 4? Mar 03 $507 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 01 $17,638 +$108 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 26 Feb 27 $763 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 26? Feb 27 $1,262 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on February 26? Feb 27 $6,728 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 24? Feb 25 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on February 23? Feb 25 $787 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 24? Feb 25 $894 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 23? Feb 25 $2,844 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 23? Feb 25 $4,090 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 22 Feb 23 $1,023 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 20? Feb 21 $997 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 20 Feb 21 $7,738 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 18? Feb 19 $1,862 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on February 18? Feb 19 $6,862 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 16? Feb 17 $3,387 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on February 16? Feb 17 $5,329 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 12 Feb 15 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 13 Feb 15 $8,208 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 12? Feb 12 $3,777 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on February 10? Feb 12 $445 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on February 11? Feb 12 $3,976 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on February 11 Feb 10 $498 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 9? Feb 10 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on February 9? Feb 10 $5,871 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 8? Feb 09 $5,142 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 8? Feb 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on February 8? Feb 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 8? Feb 09 $2,118 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 8? Feb 07 $443 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 7? Feb 07 $1,343 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 8? Feb 07 $765 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 8? Feb 07 $1,741 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on February 5? Feb 06 $928 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on February 5? Feb 06 $7,733 +$8 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $38,452 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39,899 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8,663 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $4,645 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2,811 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8,034 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,956 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $9,990 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,998 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $427 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $572 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $562 21h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $193 21h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $450 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $455 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3,634 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $70 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $70 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $114 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9,211 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3,797 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2,958 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3,884 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $0 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $0 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $0 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $1 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.76 · official $469.76 (match) · 283 history records