Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:24:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

35 0x359f…7d7b sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized −$8 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip

Net edge-45%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 156d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-44.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	6	-39.1%	-44.9%	17%	17%	-21.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-44.9%	17%	-21.0%
10%	-50.2%	17%	-28.5%
15%	-55.0%	17%	-35.4%
20%	-59.4%	17%	-41.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -39% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$4 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.6 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized−$8

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage156d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alex Pereira	51¢	50¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$6	$0	−$6 (-100%)
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?	Yes	43¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12?	No	5¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12?	Jan 11	$2	−$2	-100%
Nets vs. Grizzlies	Jan 11	$15	+$12	+75%
Nets vs. Mavericks	Jan 11	$16	−$1	-4%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Jan 11	$11	−$1	-6%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11?	Jan 11	$6	−$6	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$5	58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$15	1h
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	43¢	$10	2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12?	BUY No	5¢	$2	154d
Nets vs. Grizzlies	SELL Grizzlies	100¢	$27	154d
Nets vs. Grizzlies	BUY Grizzlies	57¢	$15	154d
Nets vs. Mavericks	SELL Mavericks	57¢	$15	154d
Nets vs. Mavericks	BUY Mavericks	60¢	$6	154d
Nets vs. Mavericks	BUY Mavericks	59¢	$10	154d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	SELL Yes	47¢	$10	154d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11?	BUY Yes	29¢	$6	154d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY Yes	50¢	$11	156d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.80 · official $19.80 (match) · 12 history records