Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x35a2…6252 crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$40 (+1%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%16W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$32
other 28% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -4.6% -13.7% 94% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 17 -4.6% -13.7% 94% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 17 -4.6% -13.7% 94% 0% -8.7%
all 17 -4.6% -13.7% 94% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -8.7%
10% -22.0% 0% -17.4%
15% -29.5% 0% -25.4%
20% -36.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×41.91 per $1 lost it wins $41.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses16 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $300 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $600 +$5 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $300 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $300 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $299 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $300 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $303 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 99¢ $300 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 98¢ $302 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 98¢ $300 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $300 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $300 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $299 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records