Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
35 0x35a3…a3ee other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$88 (+9%) realized +$67 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$131
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$100
sports 23% +$24
crypto 2% −$22
world 2% −$12
politics 1% +$3
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -22.2% -29.6% 42% 33% +5.9%
≤30d 12 -22.2% -29.6% 42% 33% +5.9%
≤90d 12 -22.2% -29.6% 42% 33% +5.9%
all 41 -33.4% -39.7% 32% 27% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 27% -2.1%
10% -45.5% 22% -11.5%
15% -50.8% 22% -20.0%
20% -55.6% 20% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$7 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage223d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $31 $52 +$21 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $353 +$22 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $151 +$28 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$107 +210%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 −$25 -81%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 +$75 +124%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Jan 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%? Dec 06 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13? Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9? Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on November 13? Nov 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 11? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12? Nov 13 $10 −$10 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on November 11? Nov 12 $1 +$1 +92%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on November 11? Nov 12 $1 +$1 +96%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 11 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9? Nov 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7? Nov 10 $1 +$5 +488%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8? Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 8? Nov 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 8? Nov 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on November 7? Nov 08 $16 +$3 +19%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on November 6? Nov 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on November 5? Nov 06 $1 +$1 +85%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on November 5? Nov 06 $28 −$5 -19%
Democratic sweep? Nov 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $5 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 60¢ $31 47m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $375 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $158 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $151 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3¢ $6 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $31 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $61 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 45h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY Yes 18¢ $2 191d
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on November 13? BUY Down 90¢ $17 213d
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 214d
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 215d
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12? BUY No 72¢ $10 215d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL No 97¢ $9 216d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 11? BUY Up 51¢ $1 216d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on November 11? BUY Up 51¢ $1 216d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on November 11? BUY Down 52¢ $1 216d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY No 65¢ $6 217d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.64 · official $51.64 (match) · 93 history records