Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
35 0x35a4…f440 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$71 (+34%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$51
other 37% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+60.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +76.9% +60.0% 55% 55% +21.2%
≤30d 11 +76.9% +60.0% 55% 55% +21.2%
≤90d 11 +76.9% +60.0% 55% 55% +21.2%
all 11 +76.9% +60.0% 55% 55% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +60.0% 55% +21.2%
10% +44.7% 55% +9.6%
15% +30.7% 55% -1.0%
20% +17.9% 45% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.39 per $1 lost it wins $5.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $61 −$3 -4%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $30 −$4 -14%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $23 +$16 +69%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 +$23 +76%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $2 +$7 +353%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 +$11 +550%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $58 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 6h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 34¢ $11 28h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 47¢ $15 28h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 46¢ $30 34h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $38 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $23 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY 48¢ $13 4d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records