Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35a4…7b85 other 684 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,232 (+5%) realized +$1,307 · open −$75
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate60%399W / 270L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$19
14 days−$802
30 days−$456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 36% +$866
world 24% +$628
other 19% +$668
crypto 8% +$11
politics 7% −$1,044
sports 3% +$4
tech 2% −$24
culture 1% −$105
weather 0% −$3
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -8.4% -17.1% 59% 43% -8.0%
≤30d 134 -18.4% -26.2% 48% 36% -15.1%
≤90d 394 -3.3% -12.5% 59% 40% -4.5%
all 669 -4.2% -13.3% 60% 37% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 37% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 20% -14.4%
15% -29.2% 12% -22.6%
20% -36.1% 7% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$359
Realized+$1,307
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses399 / 270
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions15
Markets (closed)669 / 684
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 669 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $95 $76 −$19 (-20%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $73 $62 −$11 (-16%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 56¢ 43¢ $56 $43 −$13 (-23%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $32 $26 −$7 (-21%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? Yes $27 $4 −$23 (-85%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 50¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 75¢ 47¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 28¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $108 +$45 +41%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $277 +$11 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $12 −$3 -25%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $178 +$26 +14%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $143 −$54 -38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$6 -50%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $41 −$11 -26%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -46%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -27%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $80 −$2 -2%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $0 $0 +30%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $27 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 15 $40 +$6 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -89%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 15 $21 +$5 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $128 +$18 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 14 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -45%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $17 −$3 -16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North Americ Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 09 $99 +$7 +7%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $1 +$3 +266%
Will Solana dip to $70 in June? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 54m
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 79¢ $80 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $95 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 43¢ $143 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $43 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 15¢ $3 5h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 20¢ $4 5h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 38¢ $4 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 59¢ $6 7h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 7h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 7h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 7h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 7h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 7h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 7h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No $0 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.99 · official $358.99 (match) · 3500 history records