Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x35a5…0d51
world · 65 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses19 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage515d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $77 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $36 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $89 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $12 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $31 +$6 +18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $52 −$5 -9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $32 +$3 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $3 $0 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $4 $0 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $0 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $37 $0 -0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the Mar 28 $70 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% +$4
other 25% +$8
politics 15% $0
sports 12% −$19
economics 7% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 13h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $38 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 56¢ $36 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $36 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $27 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $9 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $21 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $21 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $35 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $35 10d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 22 +0.6% -9.0% 41% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 58 -0.0% -9.5% 29% 2% -9.3%
all 63 -0.5% -9.9% 30% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 5% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.00 (match) · 234 history records