Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35a6…cb8f sports 429 markets active 2h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$64,925 (-12%) realized −$64,921 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%147W / 280L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,213per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$2,031est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,534
14 days−$1,847
30 days−$3,647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$34,560
other 46% −$30,920
world 1% −$63
politics 0% −$60
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% −$4
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 28 -8.6% -17.3% 43% 43% -17.4%
≤90d 127 -9.8% -18.4% 40% 40% -15.8%
all 427 -18.5% -26.3% 34% 33% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 33% -21.0%
10% -33.3% 32% -28.5%
15% -39.8% 29% -35.4%
20% -45.7% 25% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$1,820) neutral
Persistence
early -27% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,491 vs −$1,021 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$1,571
Realized−$64,921
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses147 / 280
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$2,031
Open positions2
Markets (closed)427 / 429
History coverage577d
Avg bet$1,213
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 427 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 84¢ $1,275 $1,268 −$8 (-1%)
Argentina leading at halftime? No 49¢ 50¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $313 −$304 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,230 −$1,230 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4,042 −$4,000 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4,039 +$2,081 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,650 −$1,650 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3,150 +$1,850 +59%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $202 −$3 -1%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,240 +$1,760 +79%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $71 +$29 +41%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2,475 +$3,025 +122%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $1,686 −$807 -48%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $303 +$101 +33%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $941 +$981 +104%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $807 +$807 +100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $1,491 +$1,552 +104%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5,098 +$2,055 +40%
Game Handicap: RED (-2.5) vs LOS (+2.5) Jun 01 $3 +$1 +32%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 26 $176 −$3 -2%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 26 $1,820 −$1,820 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 26 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 25 $542 +$1,100 +203%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4,150 −$4,150 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $840 −$466 -55%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $0 $0 -2%
LoL: Galions vs Esprit Shōnen - Game 1 Winner May 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 20 $1,035 −$811 -78%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5 May 20 $296 +$347 +117%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $3,218 +$5,032 +156%
Alba Berlin vs. SC RASTA Vechta May 19 $605 +$252 +42%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $4,963 −$4,915 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 18 $2,078 −$1,662 -80%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 18 $1,029 −$829 -80%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1,822 −$1,822 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage May 15 $1,188 −$1,188 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $1,613 −$1,613 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $2,125 −$2,125 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $2,662 −$2,662 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 13 $2,001 −$2,001 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $1,170 −$1,170 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $1,980 +$1,020 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $1,346 +$183 +14%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2,050 −$2,050 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 11 $1,410 +$1,590 +113%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $4,107 +$2,517 +61%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 08 $1,524 +$1,883 +124%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: May 07 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $1,281 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $6 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $9 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $5 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $146 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $109 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 51¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $313 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $1,230 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $4,042 7d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $24 7d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $6 7d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $22 8d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $48 8d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $65 8d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $19 8d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $7 8d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $38 8d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $1 8d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $33 8d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $48 8d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $6 8d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $32 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $739 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $3,300 8d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $1,650 10d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $3,150 10d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 55¢ $200 11d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 55¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,570.69 · official $1,570.69 (match) · 2653 history records