Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x35a7…44f4 other 129 markets active 21h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized +$28 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate87%75W / 11L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$778now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$13
14 days+$3
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$26
politics 25% +$2
world 19% +$3
finance 6% +$6
crypto 4% −$2
tech 3% $0
economics 3% +$1
culture 2% $0
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.1% -34.9% 44% 11% -20.2%
≤30d 51 +6.2% -3.9% 88% 37% -6.1%
≤90d 81 +6.4% -3.8% 90% 26% -6.9%
all 86 +2.7% -7.0% 87% 26% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 26% -7.5%
10% -15.9% 7% -16.4%
15% -24.1% 6% -24.5%
20% -31.5% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$778
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses75 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions43
Markets (closed)86 / 129
History coverage225d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+6%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+4%)
E. Jean Carroll federally charged by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Les Wexner charged by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by more than 15%? No 94¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30? No 94¢ 87¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will either Tate brother be arrested by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Evo Morales arrested by June 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+6%)
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? No 92¢ 97¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+4%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by more than 10%? No 90¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30? No 91¢ 90¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +9%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -77%
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during G7 events? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "Five Seven" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? Jun 23 $18 $0 -2%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 22 $10 +$1 +5%
Will "Deagle" be said 5+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Final Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 21 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Jun 19 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Trump say "Bonjour" during G7 events? Jun 18 $22 +$2 +10%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +82%
Will MrBeast attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump's tie be yellow? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani stream on Twitch again by June 12? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will PPI YoY be at least 8.0% in May? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $1.0T? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in May? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Takuya Onishi be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Jenni Gibbons be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Jessica Watkins be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the US lose jobs in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +9%
Will Docusign (DOCU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $2 $0 +12%
Will lululemon athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $2 $0 +11%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/25-5/31) Jun 02 $1 $0 +18%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $3 +$1 +16%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 47.0 and 47.9 in May? Jun 02 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? Jun 02 $1 $0 +34%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $5.00 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? Jun 01 $1 $0 +20%
Will "Amsterdam" be in the headlines this week? Jun 01 $2 $0 +21%
Will "Croatia" be in the headlines this week? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +36%
Will "Stupid" be in the headlines this week? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +3%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 01 $8 $0 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Comey smile in his mugshot? Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Will MongoDB Q1 Atlas revenue growth be below 20%? May 29 $5 $0 +6%
Will Dollar Tree Q1 comparable store net sales growth be below 3%? May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Burlington Stores (BURL) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $2 $0 +8%
Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $1 $0 +13%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week? May 27 $5 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 96¢ $7 20h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $3 43h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $4 44h
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $11 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $3 45h
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 2d
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY No 94¢ $8 2d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 3d
E. Jean Carroll federally charged by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $22 3d
Will "Five Seven" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? BUY No $1 4d
Will "Deagle" be said 5+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Final SELL Yes 99¢ $21 4d
Will "Five Seven" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? SELL Yes 98¢ $18 4d
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 4d
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 4d
US bank failure by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $20 4d
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $8 4d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $10 4d
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 4d
Critical Discord Incident by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $10 5d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun BUY No 98¢ $55 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 5d
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $8 5d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $6 5d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $90 5d
AWS service disrupted by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $9 5d
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $12 6d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $50 6d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by mor BUY No 90¢ $10 6d
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $777.99 · official $778.03 (match) · 220 history records