Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x35aa…8bdd
sports · 115 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,149 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,264 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses39 / 76
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage101d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$173
14 days−$173
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 50¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Spurs 5¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 39¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $76 −$66 -88%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $99 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 18 $26 +$28 +110%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $91 −$61 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 11 $6 −$5 -94%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $20 +$28 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 10 $154 −$154 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 10 $494 −$494 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 10 $53 −$32 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 10 $4 +$8 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $8 +$30 +364%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 10 $6 +$4 +60%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $30 +$12 +38%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $32 +$123 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 05 $15 +$17 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Main Ca May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Kings vs. Avalanche May 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 04 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 04 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $299 +$227 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 02 $18 +$23 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 02 $78 +$322 +410%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Shymkent: Sandro Kopp vs Sergey Fomin Apr 22 $20 −$8 -41%
Spread: Senators (-1.5) Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Stars vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5 Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 01 $4 +$6 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 01 $24 +$30 +124%
Spread: Oilers (-1.5) Apr 01 $8 +$6 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 01 $9 +$7 +81%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 01 $5 +$4 +74%
Red Wings vs. Penguins Apr 01 $10 +$9 +89%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 Apr 01 $10 −$5 -49%
Pistons vs. Thunder Mar 31 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Flyers vs. Sharks Mar 29 $68 −$68 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% −$1,009
crypto 34% −$337
other 2% +$83
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $9 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 5¢ $10 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 38¢ $76 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $99 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 26d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 0¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 34d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 42¢ $61 34d
Sabres vs. Canadiens SELL Canadiens 100¢ $49 34d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 25¢ $20 34d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 33¢ $8 34d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 33¢ $20 34d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 36¢ $20 34d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 41¢ $20 34d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 64¢ $20 34d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 33¢ $4 34d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 31¢ $2 34d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 84¢ $14 34d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 35¢ $12 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $38 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 21¢ $8 35d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 35d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 35d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C SELL Alexander Volkov 99¢ $42 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -95.8% -96.2% 0% 0% -95.3%
≤30d 7 -68.3% -71.3% 14% 14% -78.0%
≤90d 91 -38.0% -43.9% 25% 25% -41.1%
all 115 -15.1% -23.2% 34% 34% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 34% -34.2%
10% -30.5% 34% -40.5%
15% -37.2% 34% -46.2%
20% -43.4% 33% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 242 history records