Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
35 0x35ac…07b4 sports 3 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$485 (+4%) realized −$1,632 · open +$2,117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +169% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +107% what you keep after slip
Net edge+107%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3,706per market
Trades / day61.0pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10,880now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,624
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+143.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +168.8% +143.2% 100% 100% +143.2%
≤30d 1 +168.8% +143.2% 100% 100% +143.2%
≤90d 1 +168.8% +143.2% 100% 100% +143.2%
all 1 +168.8% +143.2% 100% 100% +143.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +143.2% 100% +143.2%
10% ← realistic here +119.9% 100% +119.9%
15% +98.7% 100% +98.7%
20% +79.2% 100% +79.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +169% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +169% · $-wt +169% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
19.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$506 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10,880
Realized−$1,632
Unrealized+$2,117
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,706
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Under 74¢ 94¢ $7,423 $9,350 +$1,927 (+26%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 76¢ $1,340 $1,530 +$190 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $300 +$506 +169%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1,668 14m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $746 29m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $288 59m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $481 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $26 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $481 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $4 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $202 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $17 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $114 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $114 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $36 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $809 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $763 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1,822 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $26 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $612 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $338 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $93 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $22 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $37 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $68 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $197 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $6 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $41 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,880.27 · official $10,880.27 (match) · 62 history records