Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35ae…b929 sports 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,408 (+16%) realized +$2,509 · open −$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%121W / 182L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$245est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$322
14 days+$544
30 days+$1,782
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,480
other 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.9% +7.6% 43% 43% +74.8%
≤30d 194 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 42% +5.0%
≤90d 303 -0.6% -10.0% 40% 40% +1.1%
all 303 -0.6% -10.0% 40% 40% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 40% +1.1%
10% -18.6% 39% -8.6%
15% -26.5% 36% -17.4%
20% -33.7% 32% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$30 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2,509
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses121 / 182
Est. fees paid−$245
Open positions1
Markets (closed)303 / 304
History coverage52d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 4¢ 0¢ $102 $1 −$101 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 179 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $122 +$99 +81%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $42 +$127 +303%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 22 $112 +$167 +149%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $102 +$139 +136%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $193 +$352 +182%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $30 +$26 +86%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$79 +156%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$47 +93%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $20 +$30 +145%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$40 +197%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $61 −$10 -16%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $36 −$30 -84%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $83 +$50 +60%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$41 +134%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $33 −$2 -6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $101 +$30 +29%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $201 +$30 +15%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $41 +$34 +84%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $41 +$32 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $212 −$104 -49%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $41 +$34 +83%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $41 +$49 +121%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$66 +325%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$15 +76%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$21 +69%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 0¢ $2 59m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 30¢ $51 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $51 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 30¢ $20 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $176 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 54¢ $51 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 60¢ $30 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 59¢ $20 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 49¢ $45 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $20 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 1¢ $10 5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $110 28h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $10 28h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $11 28h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 77¢ $59 28h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 19¢ $10 28h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 13¢ $10 29h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $279 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 8¢ $10 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $240 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 39¢ $51 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 44¢ $31 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 44¢ $20 7d
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 7d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 26¢ $20 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $546 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.18 · official $1.18 (match) · 727 history records