Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:59:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
35 0x35af…4260 politics 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,259 (-1%) realized −$1,259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%35W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$971per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$16
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$39
other 26% +$256
sports 12% −$1,508
world 3% +$35
economics 3% −$29
culture 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +0.4% -9.2% 12% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 65 -2.0% -11.3% 9% 5% -10.7%
all 139 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 12% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 12% -10.4%
10% -18.7% 12% -19.0%
15% -26.5% 7% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,350) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized−$1,259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses35 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage146d
Avg bet$971
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $355 $354 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $341 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,068 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,659 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $2,341 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,153 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $411 +$2 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,850 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,517 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,847 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $395 +$6 +2%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,239 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,589 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $825 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $53 +$61 +114%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,791 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $174 $0 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,558 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $3,187 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,495 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,155 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,932 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,402 −$3 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $79 +$24 +31%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $690 −$1 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,072 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,032 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? May 19 $541 −$1 -0%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 29 $1,268 −$1,268 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,184 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $2,078 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,242 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $2,534 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $355 1h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $341 1h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $341 5h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $345 24h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $346 24h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $362 25h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $363 26h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $581 27h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $582 29h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $475 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $476 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $486 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $487 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $586 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $587 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $467 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $467 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,074 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $533 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $543 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $849 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $851 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $752 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $753 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $860 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $861 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $395 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $862 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $863 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $763 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.40 · official $354.40 (match) · 456 history records