Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

35 0x35b2…a45e other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$71 (+7%) realized +$64 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate29%4W / 10L

Drawdown65%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day12.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$524now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-10.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-0.7%	-10.2%	29%	21%	-1.5%
≤30d	14	-0.7%	-10.2%	29%	21%	-1.5%
≤90d	14	-0.7%	-10.2%	29%	21%	-1.5%
all	14	-0.7%	-10.2%	29%	21%	-1.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.2%	21%	-1.5%
10%	-18.8%	21%	-10.9%
15%	-26.6%	21%	-19.5%
20%	-33.8%	14%	-27.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +36% → late -37% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$33 vs −$9 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$524

Realized+$64

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses4 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)14 / 18

History coverage4d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day12.6

Drawdown65%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	66¢	68¢	$417	$426	+$9 (+2%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$40	$39	−$1 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$40	$39	−$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	15¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Jun 26	$3	−$3	-83%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	Jun 26	$65	−$3	-5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 26	$6	$0	-5%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Jun 26	$53	−$3	-6%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$44	−$43	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$56	−$21	-38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$43	−$10	-24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$20	+$18	+90%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$11	+$1	+8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$42	+$54	+129%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$20	−$1	-6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$125	+$58	+47%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	Jun 23	$2	$0	-14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Jun 23	$25	$0	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	1h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	BUY Yes	67¢	$67	1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	SELL Yes	56¢	$62	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	44¢	$6	1h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	BUY Yes	67¢	$47	1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	3¢	$3	2h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL Yes	25¢	$50	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	36¢	$44	5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	45¢	$6	10h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$41	10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	17¢	$41	10h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	BUY Yes	67¢	$11	18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	20¢	$12	18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	54¢	$33	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	44¢	$33	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	59¢	$23	26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	53¢	$23	26h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	BUY Yes	66¢	$15	36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$23	36h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY Yes	25¢	$12	2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	38¢	$12	2d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	BUY Yes	58¢	$45	2d
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	92¢	$96	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	38¢	$21	2d
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	BUY Yes	67¢	$109	2d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	BUY Yes	54¢	$19	2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$19	2d
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	BUY Yes	65¢	$122	2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$20	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $524.05 · official $524.05 (match) · 48 history records