Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
35 0x35b2…f329 sports 188 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$906 (+2%) realized +$944 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%93W / 89L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days−$673
14 days−$1,156
30 days−$1,030
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$1,774
sports 21% −$1,285
finance 13% +$108
other 11% +$1,091
tech 5% −$599
politics 1% +$65
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -10.4% -18.9% 25% 19% -18.7%
≤30d 19 -10.9% -19.4% 26% 16% -14.3%
≤90d 182 -1.2% -10.6% 51% 41% -7.3%
all 182 -1.2% -10.6% 51% 41% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 41% -7.3%
10% -19.2% 34% -16.2%
15% -27.0% 29% -24.3%
20% -34.2% 26% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$56 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$1,150
Realized+$944
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses93 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions6
Markets (closed)182 / 188
History coverage86d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $247 $245 −$2 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $247 $245 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $198 $196 −$2 (-1%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $199 $168 −$30 (-15%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $149 $148 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $149 $148 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $120 −$95 -79%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$33 +165%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $3,000 +$238 +8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$11 +114%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 12 $2,271 −$599 -26%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $143 −$19 -14%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $286 −$19 -7%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $143 −$11 -8%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $143 −$15 -11%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $143 −$14 -10%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $143 −$6 -4%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $143 −$126 -88%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 09 $1,001 −$483 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $8,000 −$270 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $4,000 +$396 +10%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $500 +$56 +11%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $50 −$9 -18%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 30 $500 +$500 +100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $1,501 +$886 +59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 30 $50 −$33 -66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 29 $1,000 +$90 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $1,000 +$61 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 29 $500 +$214 +43%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $3,000 −$1,328 -44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 24 $1,000 +$62 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $500 +$316 +63%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $500 +$149 +30%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $500 −$479 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $500 +$79 +16%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 19 $796 +$80 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 13 $1,000 +$172 +17%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 11 $100 +$105 +105%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 09 $550 +$722 +131%
Kanye blocked from entering the UK by May 31? Apr 09 $1,000 +$39 +4%
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-Apr Apr 08 $301 −$69 -23%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $2,000 −$19 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 04 $300 +$9 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 04 $300 +$30 +10%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 03 $727 +$31 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 03 $2,981 +$316 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $500 +$101 +20%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Apr 02 $30 −$12 -40%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $250 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $250 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $150 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $150 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $150 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $20 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $53 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $20 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $20 17h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,238 21h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 44h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 44h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 44h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 44h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 44h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 44h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $3,000 2d
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? SELL Yes 68¢ $1,672 5d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $124 5d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $125 5d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 43¢ $132 5d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $128 5d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $129 5d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 33¢ $137 5d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,150.06 · official $1,150.06 (match) · 834 history records