Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35b3…6d50 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day113.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 37% -12.6%
≤30d 38 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 37% -12.6%
≤90d 38 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 37% -12.6%
all 38 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 37% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 37% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 32% -20.9%
15% -26.3% 29% -28.6%
20% -33.5% 21% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$34 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage2d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day113.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $228 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $130 −$80 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $255 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $57 +$45 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $146 −$63 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $161 −$15 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $83 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $120 −$32 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $127 −$114 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $116 −$33 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $74 +$41 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $149 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$32 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $92 +$66 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $128 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $114 +$46 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $112 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $118 +$76 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $224 −$80 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $89 −$33 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $67 +$34 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $112 +$91 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $133 +$38 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $189 −$58 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$30 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $111 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $71 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $105 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$32 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $36 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $11 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $29 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $15 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $35 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $36 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $35 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $22 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $19 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $28 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $35 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $35 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $17 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $34 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $35 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $35 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $15 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $29 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $28 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records