trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -73.8% | -76.3% | 0% | 0% | -75.7% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -32.3% | -38.8% | 43% | 29% | -17.1% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -32.3% | -38.8% | 43% | 29% | -17.1% |
| all | 7 | -32.3% | -38.8% | 43% | 29% | -17.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -38.8% | 29% | -17.1% |
| 10% | -44.6% | 29% | -25.0% |
| 15% | -50.0% | 0% | -32.2% |
| 20% | -54.9% | 0% | -38.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $4,400 | $4,375 | −$25 (-1%) |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $998 | $992 | −$5 (-1%) |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $2,692 | $726 | −$1,966 (-73%) |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $250 | −$250 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $663 | −$42 | -6% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $307 | −$273 | -89% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $96 | −$93 | -97% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $1,378 | −$1,378 | -100% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $341 | +$45 | +13% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $2,005 | +$565 | +28% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $4,415 | +$425 | +10% |