Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35b6…caad other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$337 (-11%) realized −$360 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$301
14 days−$386
30 days−$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$245
world 24% +$15
tech 12% +$29
sports 9% −$148
weather 8% +$6
culture 5% +$8
politics 4% −$26
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -18.0% -25.8% 51% 26% -19.5%
≤30d 36 -18.9% -26.6% 50% 25% -21.6%
≤90d 36 -18.9% -26.6% 50% 25% -21.6%
all 36 -18.9% -26.6% 50% 25% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 25% -21.6%
10% -33.6% 8% -29.1%
15% -40.0% 3% -36.0%
20% -45.9% 0% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$28 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized−$360
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)36 / 43
History coverage7d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 81¢ 97¢ $65 $78 +$13 (+20%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? No 87¢ 100¢ $36 $41 +$5 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? No 86¢ 86¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? No 84¢ 99¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+19%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 69¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $61 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $14 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 +$4 +13%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $35 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $23 −$18 -77%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $43 −$28 -65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $129 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$6 +13%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $35 +$9 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $140 +$3 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $122 −$32 -26%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 15 $40 −$2 -6%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $86 −$7 -8%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $65 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $270 −$5 -2%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $241 +$29 +12%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $35 +$6 +17%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $81 −$3 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $350 −$77 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $382 −$131 -34%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$2 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $205 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $173 −$85 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $32 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 99¢ $70 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 86¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $20 15h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $22 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $3 16h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 70¢ $13 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 75¢ $14 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $22 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 77¢ $10 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 77¢ $10 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 81¢ $10 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 85¢ $20 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 82¢ $20 24h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $10 24h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $31 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $32 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? SELL No 99¢ $39 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 16¢ $5 25h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $23 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $27 35h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 84¢ $25 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $28 35h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $17 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.16 · official $247.55 (match) · 109 history records