Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x35b7…fbcf sports 441 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,642 (+2%) realized +$3,642 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate78%346W / 95L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$915est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$430
7 days+$1,358
14 days+$1,961
30 days+$3,444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$3,128
other 12% +$975
crypto 1% +$104
world 1% +$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.1% -5.8% 88% 44% -2.2%
≤30d 99 +1.7% -8.0% 75% 40% -4.9%
≤90d 381 +2.9% -6.9% 78% 34% -7.5%
all 441 +2.8% -6.9% 78% 34% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 34% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 16% -16.4%
15% -24.0% 10% -24.5%
20% -31.4% 7% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$688) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$144 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,642
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses346 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$915
Open positions0
Markets (closed)441 / 441
History coverage104d
Avg bet$490
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 441 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $873 +$126 +14%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $17 −$5 -29%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $182 +$67 +37%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 27 $2,807 +$150 +5%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $212 +$88 +41%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY Jun 27 $981 +$18 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,970 +$91 +3%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1,940 −$132 -7%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 26 $282 +$27 +10%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1,790 +$210 +12%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $162 +$22 +14%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2,045 +$205 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $405 +$95 +24%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1,312 +$91 +7%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1,537 +$198 +13%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2,838 +$108 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $900 +$100 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,880 +$118 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $840 +$159 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,766 +$32 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $172 +$228 +132%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,080 −$431 -40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $810 +$190 +24%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $148 +$102 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $697 +$197 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $217 −$170 -79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $54 −$16 -30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $610 +$81 +13%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $144 +$105 +73%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $125 +$75 +60%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,178 +$72 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $440 +$59 +14%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $258 +$90 +35%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $197 +$71 +36%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,225 +$270 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 −$38 -79%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,885 −$292 -16%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $9 −$5 -57%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,140 +$59 +5%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $12 −$8 -67%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1,013 +$73 +7%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $344 −$289 -84%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,409 +$89 +6%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $52 +$48 +92%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,290 +$32 +1%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $93 +$60 +65%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $498 +$32 +6%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $37 −$28 -76%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $424 +$97 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $999 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 87¢ $873 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ $6 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ $6 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 17¢ $17 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $250 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 73¢ $30 3h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 73¢ $152 3h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? SELL No 98¢ $2,955 10h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 95¢ $951 10h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $15 11h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $74 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $12 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $279 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $23 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $33 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $33 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $56 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $12 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $18 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $115 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $265 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $310 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $115 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $23 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $22 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $12 12h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY No 92¢ $438 12h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 100¢ $300 21h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY DNS 70¢ $212 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2774 history records