Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
35 0x35b8…d6f9 crypto 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,721 (-15%) realized −$2,721 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate68%65W / 30L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$52
other 29% −$2,511
world 11% −$20
politics 10% −$92
economics 5% +$3
sports 2% −$163
tech 1% +$8
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 62% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 17 -4.1% -13.2% 71% 6% -9.3%
all 95 -4.1% -13.3% 68% 19% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 19% -22.9%
10% -21.6% 14% -30.3%
15% -29.1% 7% -37.0%
20% -36.1% 7% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$99 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$2,721
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses65 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage608d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? May 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? May 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? May 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 24 $64 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 12 $90 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 12 $88 +$24 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 29 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Mar 08 $2,552 −$2,552 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 mee Mar 08 $1,000 +$3 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Feb 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 24 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Feb 09 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 03 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 04 $2,470 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Nov 03 $666 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by October 31? Nov 03 $800 +$2 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Nov 03 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $2,462 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 30 $2,462 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 07 $50 $0 +1%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $40 −$13 -33%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 03 $116 +$7 +6%
Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? Feb 13 $112 +$4 +3%
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? Feb 11 $204 −$92 -45%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $175 +$30 +17%
Will 'A Different Man' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture? Jan 23 $11 $0 +4%
Will Solana hit $275 by January 31, 2025? Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 11 $382 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $762 +$2 +0%
Will 'The Seed of the Sacred Fig' be nominated for Oscar for Best Pict Jan 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Jan 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will 'Challengers' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture? Jan 08 $18 $0 -2%
Will 'The Piano Lesson' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture? Jan 08 $21 $0 -2%
Will 'Blitz' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture? Jan 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will SOL flip XRP again in 2024? Jan 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 06 $3 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $79 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $103 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? SELL No 100¢ $16 29d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? SELL No 100¢ $40 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $19 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? SELL No 100¢ $44 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $64 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 41d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 41d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 41d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $43 54d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $45 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $37 54d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $51 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 67d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 69d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $37 69d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 98¢ $25 80d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $90 80d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 80d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $1,003 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $102 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.93 · official $202.93 (match) · 206 history records