Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35b8…5e92 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$774 (+16%) realized +$774 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days+$276
14 days+$276
30 days+$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$89
other 34% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -17.6% -25.5% 27% 22% -1.4%
≤30d 38 -17.3% -25.2% 26% 21% -1.5%
≤90d 38 -17.3% -25.2% 26% 21% -1.5%
all 38 -17.3% -25.2% 26% 21% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 21% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 18% -10.9%
15% -38.9% 16% -19.5%
20% -44.9% 13% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$45 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$774
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage9d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $374 −$50 -13%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $67 −$60 -90%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $126 −$28 -22%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $826 −$53 -6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $502 −$99 -20%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $25 −$9 -35%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$142 +284%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $414 +$179 +43%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $118 −$92 -78%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$2 -12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $4 $0 -12%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $114 −$65 -57%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $140 +$4 +3%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $192 −$45 -23%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $72 −$12 -17%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $148 −$100 -68%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $300 +$99 +33%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $114 +$845 +741%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $173 +$123 +71%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 −$3 -20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 +$51 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $77 −$75 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 +$36 +89%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 −$6 -19%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $269 −$248 -92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $277 +$54 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $26 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 81¢ $451 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $11 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 35¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $24 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $15 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 34¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $21 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 13¢ $29 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 13¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 59¢ $49 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 58¢ $50 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 15¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 1¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 252 history records