Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35bb…d435 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$3
other 23% $0
sports 7% $0
politics 5% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.0% -4.1% 43% 14% -9.1%
≤30d 20 +2.6% -7.2% 35% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 20 +2.6% -7.2% 35% 5% -9.1%
all 38 +0.8% -8.8% 37% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage475d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 74¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $46 −$2 -5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 +$2 +45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $59 +$2 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $13 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $14 $0 +3%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 16 $2 $0 -25%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $56 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $41 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tony Finau win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will anyone audibly fart during tariff event on April 2? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $15 +$1 +3%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'Mexico' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $17 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $42 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $42 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $39 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $40 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $28 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $46 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $61 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $61 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $7 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.73 (match) · 156 history records