Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35c7…6021 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$135 (+13%) realized +$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$204
sports 28% +$44
crypto 7% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -4.8% -13.8% 24% 24% +9.6%
≤30d 41 -4.8% -13.8% 24% 24% +9.6%
≤90d 41 -4.8% -13.8% 24% 24% +9.6%
all 41 -4.8% -13.8% 24% 24% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 24% +9.6%
10% -22.1% 24% -0.9%
15% -29.6% 22% -10.5%
20% -36.5% 20% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$16 · ×4.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage3d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $182 +$169 +93%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $17 +$59 +352%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 +$10 +47%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 −$4 -19%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $15 +$41 +265%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $155 +$123 +80%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 0 Czechia? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 14 $20 −$17 -81%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $15 −$13 -87%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $21 −$16 -79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$31 +103%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 +$4 +24%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 +$132 +1288%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +106%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$33 +323%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $352 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 36¢ $76 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 17¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 2h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $182 3h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $43 6h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 42¢ $56 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $278 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $53 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 10h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 25h
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) SELL Knicks 5¢ $4 26h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 26h
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Knicks 25¢ $20 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3111 history records