Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35c7…c557 sports 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$124 (+2%) realized −$65 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%94W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days+$335
14 days+$9
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$34
crypto 11% −$6
other 3% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +2.1% -7.6% 42% 42% +3.4%
≤30d 222 -10.2% -18.7% 42% 41% -10.4%
≤90d 228 -11.3% -19.8% 41% 40% -10.6%
all 228 -11.3% -19.8% 41% 40% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 40% -10.6%
10% -27.4% 40% -19.2%
15% -34.4% 39% -27.0%
20% -40.9% 38% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses94 / 134
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage33d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$7 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $60 −$34 -58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $54 +$67 +124%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 +$73 +292%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$66 +216%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $57 +$64 +112%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $56 +$27 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $67 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$33 +128%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $67 +$76 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $26 −$2 -9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $80 +$125 +156%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $76 +$91 +119%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $95 −$94 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $43 +$81 +189%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 −$29 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $67 +$84 +126%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $53 +$109 +206%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $20 +$41 +206%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $53 −$23 -43%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $59 +$121 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $23 +$19 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $131 +$95 +72%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $50 +$50 +99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$9 +173%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $60 −$59 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $35 14h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 63¢ $35 14h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 78¢ $120 30h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $98 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 34¢ $54 30h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $25 31h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $40 32h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $47 33h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $97 36h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 31¢ $31 37h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 91¢ $121 37h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 83¢ $82 37h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $56 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 39¢ $37 39h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $57 39h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 23¢ $36 40h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 34¢ $31 40h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 36¢ $25 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $58 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $25 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $67 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 29¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 31¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $205 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.63 (match) · 449 history records