Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x35c8…90cb other 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,965 (+4%) realized +$5,997 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%91W / 100L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$735per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$2,352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,253
7 days+$1,683
14 days+$13,531
30 days+$13,531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$5,182
sports 30% −$1,297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.5% -7.2% 33% 33% +24.8%
≤30d 15 +75.7% +59.0% 53% 53% +82.7%
≤90d 135 +8.0% -2.3% 47% 47% -4.6%
all 191 +2.5% -7.3% 48% 48% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 48% -6.2%
10% -16.2% 41% -15.2%
15% -24.3% 38% -23.4%
20% -31.7% 34% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,003) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$763 vs −$655 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$2,352
Realized+$5,997
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses91 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage130d
Avg bet$735
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 36¢ $2,384 $2,352 −$32 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $500 −$402 -80%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $308 −$296 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,343 +$3,041 +226%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $611 +$1,010 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,593 −$1,570 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $572 +$1,031 +180%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $434 +$1,949 +449%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,566 +$2,015 +129%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,496 +$2,004 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,055 +$4,366 +414%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,377 +$2,538 +107%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,374 −$1,275 -93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 −$186 -92%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $598 −$594 -99%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $3,650 −$3,610 -99%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $680 −$664 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $183 +$26 +14%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $92 +$190 +206%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 19 $328 +$526 +160%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $1,493 +$1,007 +67%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,146 +$947 +83%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $444 −$324 -73%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,343 −$1,325 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,648 −$2,049 -77%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,000 −$768 -77%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1,543 +$998 +65%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $458 −$367 -80%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1,372 −$1,355 -99%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $1,509 −$1,487 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $4,005 +$3,310 +83%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $1,239 −$992 -80%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $286 −$279 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2,286 +$2,048 +90%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,066 +$1,034 +97%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $540 −$530 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $1,886 −$1,852 -98%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $303 −$300 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadena May 08 $295 +$168 +57%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $807 +$320 +40%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $2,068 +$3,010 +146%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $281 +$41 +14%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $540 +$515 +95%
Will Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC end in a draw? May 06 $1,201 +$322 +27%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $2,138 −$2,100 -98%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $2,969 −$2,957 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $1,251 −$1,119 -89%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $266 −$264 -99%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $791 +$1,018 +129%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $44 −$37 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 7¢ $98 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $500 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 0¢ $12 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $24 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $1,223 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $611 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $571 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $308 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $46 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $1,297 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $5 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $606 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $1,593 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $11 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $561 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 38¢ $204 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $56 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $175 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $10 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $1,556 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $10 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $471 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $574 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $20 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $1,475 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $914 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 12¢ $57 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 13¢ $26 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,351.78 · official $2,351.78 (match) · 418 history records