Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35c8…73dd crypto 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (384 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,035 (+1%) realized +$3,783 · open +$252
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate87%60W / 9L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$5,877per market
Trades / day383.5pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,965now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$279
7 days+$3,612
14 days+$3,627
30 days+$3,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$487
crypto 17% +$3,373
other 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (384 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +0.1% -9.4% 86% 3% -8.7%
≤30d 69 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 3% -8.7%
≤90d 69 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 3% -8.7%
all 69 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover383.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 3% -8.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.5%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$3,370) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
37.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$102 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.95 per $1 lost it wins $4.95
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2,965
Realized+$3,783
Unrealized+$252
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses60 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5,877
Trades / day383.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Down 91¢ 100¢ $2,714 $2,965 +$252 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET Jun 26 $1,074 +$26 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET Jun 25 $763 +$37 +5%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $61,509 +$62 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $363 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $829 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $1,805 +$105 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $587 +$38 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET Jun 24 $396 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 23 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $1,361 +$39 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $514 −$1 -0%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula Jun 23 $2,487 +$50 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $586 +$14 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $66 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 23 $393 +$7 +2%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $1,292 +$31 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $913 −$45 -5%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $11,916 +$12 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $4,609 −$209 -4%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $873 +$47 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $1,369 +$55 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $1,364 +$48 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET Jun 22 $586 +$36 +6%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) Jun 22 $60,198 +$60 +0%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $1,818 +$61 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $875 −$69 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Jun 22 $1,905 −$154 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET Jun 22 $479 +$23 +5%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $7,879 +$8 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Jun 22 $689 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET Jun 22 $878 +$22 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET Jun 22 $2,471 +$29 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET Jun 22 $785 +$115 +15%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $8,342 +$8 +0%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) Jun 21 $1,092 +$1 +0%
Game Handicap: Enjoy (-1.5) vs Team Bald (+1.5) Jun 21 $398 $0 +0%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter Jun 21 $487 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Jun 21 $194 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $2,597 +$3 +0%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $5,097 +$5 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Navarro vs Golubic Jun 20 $2,175 +$2 +0%
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,187 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $1,600 +$45 +3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $61,150 +$61 +0%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,554 +$3 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $785 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $3,660 −$80 -2%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $7,016 +$7 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,965.45 · official $2,965.45 (match) · 3005 history records