Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35cc…8257 sports 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (461 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-4%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate36%54W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day461.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$6
sports 34% −$10
other 15% −$1
world 13% −$1
politics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (461 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -9.7% -18.3% 36% 16% -16.1%
≤30d 151 -9.7% -18.3% 36% 16% -16.1%
≤90d 151 -9.7% -18.3% 36% 16% -16.1%
all 151 -9.7% -18.3% 36% 16% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover461.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 16% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 11% -24.1%
15% -33.3% 5% -31.5%
20% -39.8% 3% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses54 / 97
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day461.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Víctor Muñoz be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 13m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 20¢ $0 25m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL No 85¢ $1 25m
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 26m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL No 97¢ $1 26m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 26m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 26m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 64¢ $1 26m
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $1 26m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $1 26m
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 26m
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $1 26m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 26m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 26m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $1 26m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $1 26m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $1 26m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $1 26m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 89¢ $1 27m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 64¢ $1 4h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 71¢ $1 4h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 58¢ $1 5h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Maria Sakkari 67¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 74¢ $1 5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 74¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 74¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.10 · official $17.10 (match) · 507 history records