Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x35d3…19f9 crypto 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%135W / 7L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$54
14 days−$886
30 days−$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$124
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +7.7% -2.5% 91% 9% -7.3%
≤30d 37 -3.5% -12.7% 86% 5% -11.0%
≤90d 93 +3.6% -6.3% 94% 6% -9.8%
all 142 +2.4% -7.4% 95% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 4% -9.7%
10% -16.2% 4% -18.3%
15% -24.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -31.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$551) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$161 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses135 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage135d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $197 $198 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $169 +$9 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $530 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $351 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $163 +$10 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $125 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $173 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$12 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $321 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $19 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $629 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,418 −$1,112 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,398 +$28 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $453 +$23 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,363 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,345 +$18 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $276 +$63 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $982 +$23 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $12 −$7 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,259 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $998 +$48 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,102 +$86 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,115 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,090 +$25 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,017 +$73 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $959 +$57 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $933 +$25 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $917 +$20 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $872 +$45 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 27 $4 −$3 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $857 +$15 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $808 +$49 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $778 +$30 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $772 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $768 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $766 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $703 +$63 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $692 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $684 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $656 +$27 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $642 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $633 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 14? May 14 $1 +$4 +372%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $317 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $302 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $624 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 11? May 11 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $252 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $150 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $166 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $358 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 89¢ $177 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 86¢ $172 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $354 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $351 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $59 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $55 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $48 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $57 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $9 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $48 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $173 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $92 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $193 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $321 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 60¢ $17 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $19 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $69 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $60 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $60 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $68 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.22 · official $198.22 (match) · 494 history records