Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
35 0x35d3…e506 sports 937 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,945 (-5%) realized −$8,939 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%301W / 554L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$1,191est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 150d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$4,732
other 31% −$4,211
crypto 1% −$500
world 1% +$761
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +97.8% +79.0% 45% 45% +38.1%
≤30d 149 +37.7% +24.6% 33% 32% +4.1%
≤90d 447 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 28% -12.7%
all 855 +0.9% -8.7% 35% 34% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 34% -9.1%
10% -17.4% 33% -17.8%
15% -25.4% 32% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 30% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$308 vs −$166 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized−$8,939
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses301 / 554
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,191
Open positions2
Markets (closed)855 / 937
History coverage150d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 855 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 22¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $383 −$383 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 +$479 +931%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $179 +$524 +292%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $387 +$524 +135%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $281 +$819 +291%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway Jun 23 $533 +$507 +95%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $205 +$638 +312%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $204 +$439 +215%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $408 −$402 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $215 −$210 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $377 −$370 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $301 −$297 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $143 −$140 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06- Jun 22 $127 +$54 +43%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verd Jun 22 $51 +$768 +1494%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $255 −$250 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $406 −$400 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $204 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $457 −$50 -11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $204 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $153 −$150 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $598 +$510 +85%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $306 +$497 +163%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $501 +$195 +39%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $128 −$125 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $51 +$305 +596%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $90 +$213 +237%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $132 −$130 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$424 +414%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $154 −$100 -65%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $496 +$800 +161%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $230 −$225 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,215 +$465 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $92 +$655 +708%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $256 +$705 +276%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 +$210 +204%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $255 +$443 +174%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $103 +$675 +658%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY 19¢ $102 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $153 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $508 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 3¢ $77 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-0 BUY 14¢ $103 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in BUY 17¢ $102 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? AND Will Colombia vs. DR Congo BUY 6¢ $103 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 26¢ $256 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 3¢ $26 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 43¢ $530 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 69¢ $704 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $911 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $383 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $387 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $179 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 4¢ $51 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 41¢ $509 17h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY 14¢ $103 17h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+ BUY 18¢ $102 17h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Co BUY 5¢ $154 17h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Co BUY 18¢ $128 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Colombia w BUY 27¢ $275 17h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY 27¢ $102 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Wi BUY 23¢ $153 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY 13¢ $103 20h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $408 26h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $215 26h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $377 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.47 · official $1,569.46 · 1888 history records