Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35d7…0917 crypto 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (234 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%145W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day233.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$34
other 12% +$14
sports 10% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (234 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 224 -6.4% -15.3% 65% 47% -10.2%
≤30d 224 -6.4% -15.3% 65% 47% -10.2%
≤90d 224 -6.4% -15.3% 65% 47% -10.2%
all 224 -6.4% -15.3% 65% 47% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover233.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 47% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 39% -18.8%
15% -30.8% 17% -26.6%
20% -37.6% 13% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses145 / 79
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)224 / 232
History coverage4d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day233.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 35¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 60¢ 81¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+35%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 28¢ 39¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$9 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $7 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $22 +$27 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $18 +$10 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$14 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$11 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Emam Ashour: 2+ shots Jun 27 $3 $0 +1%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 27 $29 $0 +0%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 27 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $9 +$1 +12%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $4 +$24 +563%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +15%
Michael Olise: 3+ shots Jun 26 $18 +$2 +11%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists Jun 26 $252 +$3 +1%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$5 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$12 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$16 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 35¢ $8 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 35¢ $1 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 35¢ $1 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 35¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $18 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.11 · official $97.56 (match) · 988 history records