Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35e1…f41d sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,027 (+2%) realized +$598 · open +$429
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate77%75W / 22L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$14,691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 24% +$630
economics 24% −$68
finance 23% +$739
politics 12% −$6
other 10% −$208
world 3% +$138
crypto 3% −$96
tech 0% −$15
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -27.6% -34.5% 67% 33% -26.6%
≤30d 6 -32.3% -38.8% 50% 17% -21.0%
≤90d 39 -17.9% -25.7% 62% 31% -9.9%
all 97 -6.0% -15.0% 77% 26% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 26% -8.0%
10% -23.1% 11% -16.8%
15% -30.5% 9% -24.8%
20% -37.4% 7% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$62 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$14,691
Realized+$598
Unrealized+$429
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses75 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions28
Markets (closed)97 / 125
History coverage225d
Avg bet$452
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $5,658 $6,233 +$575 (+10%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $2,124 $2,206 +$82 (+4%)
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $1,808 $1,925 +$116 (+6%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 84¢ 48¢ $1,357 $771 −$586 (-43%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? No 80¢ 95¢ $336 $401 +$65 (+19%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $343 $387 +$45 (+13%)
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $320 $352 +$32 (+10%)
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $278 $289 +$11 (+4%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 82¢ $282 $259 −$23 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $232 $231 −$1 (-1%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? No 86¢ 96¢ $192 $216 +$23 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 78¢ 100¢ $156 $199 +$44 (+28%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $186 $187 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 88¢ 100¢ $132 $149 +$17 (+13%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 57¢ $138 $146 +$8 (+6%)
Will XRP dip to $0.40 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 86¢ $102 $109 +$7 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 64¢ 66¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No 90¢ 91¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $72 $86 +$14 (+19%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? No 80¢ 94¢ $72 $84 +$12 (+16%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027? No 69¢ 74¢ $67 $71 +$5 (+7%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 78¢ 60¢ $78 $60 −$18 (-24%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 28¢ $63 $53 −$10 (-15%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 28¢ $26 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? No 83¢ 97¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $40 +$2 +5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 28 $1,706 −$205 -12%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027? May 15 $191 +$100 +52%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $1,680 +$127 +8%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 02 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 16 $68 −$5 -7%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 14 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Apr 12 $507 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 07 $76 +$5 +7%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Apr 05 $8 +$2 +27%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $260 +$6 +2%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Apr 02 $48 −$10 -21%
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files? Apr 01 $415 −$394 -95%
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper Apr 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Solana dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $149 −$112 -75%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Apr 01 $103 −$103 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.60 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $21 −$21 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files? Apr 01 $135 −$135 -100%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $142 +$8 +5%
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $296 +$9 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 01 $387 +$66 +17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $710 +$99 +14%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? Apr 01 $609 +$53 +9%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $5,969 +$320 +5%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 01 $720 +$81 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 27 $335 +$57 +17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 27 $36 +$38 +107%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Mar 22 $69 +$4 +6%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Mar 22 $74 +$34 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 21 $107 −$7 -6%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Mar 15 $10 +$1 +9%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Mar 15 $10 +$1 +9%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Mar 15 $18 +$1 +5%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 15 $30 +$1 +3%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Mar 15 $30 +$2 +7%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Mar 15 $82 +$18 +22%
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 08 $25 +$35 +138%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.0% before 2027? Feb 28 $794 +$6 +1%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Feb 17 $398 +$43 +11%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $100 +$1 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M Feb 09 $50 +$38 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $15 1h
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 1h
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY No 79¢ $16 1h
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $41 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $3 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $73 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $126 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $6 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $12 2d
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $18 2d
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 62¢ $31 2d
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $3 3d
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 3d
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 89¢ $50 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 95¢ $40 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 8d
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 12d
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $8 14d
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $11 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 99¢ $100 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 18d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $25 18d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $70 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 75¢ $188 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,690.72 · official $14,699.81 (match) · 1063 history records