Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:03:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

35 0x35e2…9dcb sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$47,781 (+33%) realized +$47,500 · open +$281

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip

Net edge-63%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate28%5W / 13L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$7,346per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Fees−$2,034est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$11,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-57.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-53.3%	-57.7%	28%	22%	+28.1%
≤30d	18	-53.3%	-57.7%	28%	22%	+28.1%
≤90d	18	-53.3%	-57.7%	28%	22%	+28.1%
all	18	-53.3%	-57.7%	28%	22%	+28.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~12%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-57.7%	22%	+28.1%
10% ← realistic here	-61.8%	22%	+15.9%
15%	-65.5%	22%	+4.7%
20%	-68.9%	17%	-5.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -53% · $-wt +42% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,006) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -88% → late -18% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17,850 vs −$2,530 · ×7.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$11,281

Realized+$47,500

Unrealized+$281

Win rate (resolved)28%

Wins / losses5 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Est. fees paid−$2,034

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage6d

Avg bet$7,346

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Under	46¢	48¢	$10,000	$10,326	+$326 (+3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$1,000	$955	−$45 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$81,062	+$74,708	+92%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$86	+$41	+48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$159	+$197	+124%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$20,276	−$20,000	-99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$23	−$23	-98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 20	$20,252	+$14,231	+70%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$64	−$63	-99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$169	−$167	-98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$55	−$54	-98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 19	$45	−$44	-98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$37	−$37	-99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 19	$15	−$15	-100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Second half draw?	Jun 19	$311	−$311	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$1,006	−$1,006	-100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar?	Jun 19	$491	−$491	-100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar?	Jun 19	$513	−$513	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$10,165	−$10,165	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$1,002	+$73	+7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1,027	21m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	46¢	$10,162	35m
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	51¢	$81,062	12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	67¢	$86	13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	54¢	$20,276	16h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	44¢	$159	17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$23	17h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	56¢	$64	21h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	58¢	$20,252	24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	44¢	$169	40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	22¢	$55	41h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$45	43h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$37	46h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar?	BUY Yes	13¢	$491	2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar?	BUY Yes	13¢	$513	2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	45¢	$10,165	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	93¢	$1,002	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	81¢	$1,006	3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Second half draw?	BUY Yes	91¢	$311	3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$15	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,280.63 · official $11,280.63 (match) · 32 history records