Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:59:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35e3…0df5 crypto 598 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$50 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate80%476W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$25
14 days−$52
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$65
other 1% +$19
tech 1% +$6
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -1.1% -10.6% 66% 39% -12.7%
≤30d 594 -1.5% -10.9% 80% 32% -11.8%
≤90d 594 -1.5% -10.9% 80% 32% -11.8%
all 594 -1.5% -10.9% 80% 32% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 32% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 20% -20.3%
15% -27.2% 12% -28.0%
20% -34.3% 8% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses476 / 118
Open positions4
Markets (closed)594 / 598
History coverage18d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 594 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+48%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 0¢ 82¢ $0 $16 +$16 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 73¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Yes 35¢ 31¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $17 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $42 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.84 · official $21.34 · 1310 history records