Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35e4…9133 other 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,454 (-2%) realized −$3,453 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate22%35W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,305per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$46
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$105
other 39% −$293
sports 10% −$3,069
economics 3% −$5
world 3% −$17
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -13.9% -22.1% 5% 2% -11.6%
all 157 -4.8% -13.8% 22% 8% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 8% -11.1%
10% -22.1% 8% -19.6%
15% -29.6% 8% -27.3%
20% -36.5% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,710) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$34 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$1,006
Realized−$3,453
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses35 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,305
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $665 $665 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $341 $341 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $4,132 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,086 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,683 −$3 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,121 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $987 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,439 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,987 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,637 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,283 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,201 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,480 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $67 −$67 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $84 +$59 +70%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,706 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,456 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $565 +$1 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,407 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $6,317 −$7 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $961 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $121 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,312 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,747 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,518 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $4,872 −$6 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,278 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $63 +$74 +119%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,215 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $3,659 −$4 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,444 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,602 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $4,387 −$7 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,014 −$5 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,495 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $2,832 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,826 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $3,026 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,401 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,296 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $3,099 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $2,915 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,507 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $665 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $996 19h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $997 21h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 24h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 25h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,005 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,006 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,197 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,199 3d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,120 3d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,121 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $986 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $987 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $341 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,437 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,439 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,056 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,058 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,666 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,668 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,697 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,699 9d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,086 9d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,088 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $709 10d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $710 10d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 10d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,038 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,005.73 · official $1,005.73 (match) · 500 history records