Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:29:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35e5…3ad9 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% $0
other 30% +$1
politics 8% +$1
culture 2% −$5
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.3%
all 38 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 5% -9.6%
10% -16.7% 5% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage398d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $86 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $53 +$3 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $98 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $53 −$3 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 01 $2 $0 -1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 21 $7 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 19? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $11 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? May 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 29 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $51 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 9h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $19 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $2 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $29 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $16 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $46 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 97¢ $50 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $50 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $43 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $53 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.87 · official $49.87 (match) · 142 history records