Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

35 0x35e9…05fd other 20 markets active 3d ago coverage 237d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$830 (-2%) realized −$1,370 · open +$540

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate58%7W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2,233per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$28,892now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$1,482

30 days−$1,413

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-32.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	5	-31.2%	-37.8%	60%	40%	-57.2%
≤90d	8	-13.5%	-21.8%	62%	38%	-44.2%
all	12	-25.2%	-32.3%	58%	25%	-46.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.3%	25%	-46.5%
10%	-38.8%	17%	-51.6%
15%	-44.7%	8%	-56.3%
20%	-50.1%	8%	-60.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

57% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -34% → late -16% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$334 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.19 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage

Net worth$28,892

Realized−$1,370

Unrealized+$540

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses7 / 5

Open positions8

Markets (closed)12 / 20

History coverage237d

Avg bet$2,233

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	22¢	$5,993	$7,461	+$1,467 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	15¢	$3,432	$5,210	+$1,778 (+52%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	13¢	$5,646	$4,587	−$1,059 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$3,944	$3,548	−$396 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	8¢	$3,341	$2,683	−$658 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	6¢	$2,720	$1,956	−$764 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	6¢	$1,407	$1,871	+$464 (+33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$1,867	$1,575	−$292 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$700	+$5	+1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$501	−$500	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1,003	−$1,000	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$50	+$14	+27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$432	+$68	+16%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	May 22	$20	$0	+1%
Will Trump visit China by March 31?	May 22	$45	−$5	-11%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	May 22	$378	+$222	+59%
Will Xi visit the US by December 31?	Jan 21	$19	+$1	+3%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Jan 21	$20	+$1	+3%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Oct 29	$64	−$64	-100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Oct 29	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$905	3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$333	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$1,174	3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$856	3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$272	3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$764	3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$278	3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$419	3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$31	7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$34	7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$38	7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$61	7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$65	7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$70	7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$95	7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$705	9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	92¢	$501	9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$29	9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$34	9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$54	9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$54	9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$56	9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$69	9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$95	9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	91¢	$1,003	11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	78¢	$50	13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	86¢	$432	15d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$235	15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$459	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,891.75 · official $28,891.75 (match) · 139 history records