Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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35 0x35f2…71a3 crypto 363 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 200d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,842 (+1%) realized +$1,541 · open +$301
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate73%264W / 98L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5,342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$18
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,009
other 1% +$8
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -5.4% -14.4% 75% 0% -13.1%
≤90d 68 -12.3% -20.6% 51% 4% -9.3%
all 362 -0.9% -10.4% 73% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 10% -9.0%
10% -18.9% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.8% 1% -25.7%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$24 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$5,342
Realized+$1,541
Unrealized+$301
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses264 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)362 / 363
History coverage201d ⚠
Avg bet$429
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $5,042 $5,342 +$301 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $1,490 +$18 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $1,533 −$243 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $92 −$36 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $94 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? Jun 02 $199 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? May 31 $194 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? May 23 $1,395 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $540 +$32 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? May 18 $756 +$65 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? Apr 08 $410 $0 -0%
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? Apr 05 $8 +$8 +93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $193 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $195 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $1,438 +$19 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Mar 31 $3,046 +$100 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5? Mar 31 $408 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5? Mar 31 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? Mar 31 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $106 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 31? Mar 30 $805 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? Mar 29 $136 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3? Mar 28 $355 +$20 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 3? Mar 28 $45 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 27 $97 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 27 $352 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29? Mar 27 $790 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 23-29? Mar 27 $957 +$29 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 23-29? Mar 27 $122 +$11 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 26? Mar 24 $384 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 27? Mar 23 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 23 $19 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? Mar 23 $17 +$3 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 23 $746 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 26? Mar 22 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 26? Mar 22 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 26? Mar 22 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22? Mar 22 $2,116 +$35 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $60 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $200 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $2,108 45h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $167 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,510 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,075 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $6 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $16 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $7 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $3 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $100 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $7 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $8 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $6 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? SELL No 100¢ $9 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,342.28 · official $5,342.28 (match) · 3500 history records