Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35f5…c2e5 other 11 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-31%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$8
sports 19% +$2
crypto 13% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.9% -16.7% 40% 40% -38.3%
≤30d 10 -7.9% -16.7% 40% 40% -38.3%
≤90d 10 -7.9% -16.7% 40% 40% -38.3%
all 10 -7.9% -16.7% 40% 40% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 40% -38.3%
10% -24.6% 30% -44.2%
15% -31.9% 20% -49.6%
20% -38.6% 10% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +246%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 82¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 54¢ $1 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.12 · official $1.12 (match) · 18 history records