Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35fb…4ce5 other 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,881 (-19%) realized −$5,882 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%44W / 135L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$502
7 days−$404
14 days−$1,233
30 days−$1,629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$3,015
sports 15% −$931
crypto 7% −$2,201
world 5% +$109
economics 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -52.7% -57.2% 13% 13% -20.3%
≤30d 53 -50.4% -55.2% 13% 13% -39.2%
≤90d 65 -33.5% -39.8% 18% 18% -31.1%
all 179 -7.2% -16.0% 25% 23% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 23% -27.2%
10% -24.1% 23% -34.1%
15% -31.4% 22% -40.5%
20% -38.1% 22% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$341 vs −$155 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized−$5,882
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses44 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)179 / 183
History coverage280d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $140 $142 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+7%)
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 Portugal? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $525 −$525 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 26 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $377 −$24 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $194 +$306 +158%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $95 −$93 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $13 −$12 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $39 −$38 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $84 +$108 +128%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $160 −$160 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $61 +$139 +226%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $80 −$78 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $74 −$72 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $160 −$160 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $15 −$14 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $240 +$510 +212%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $17 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $169 −$165 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $160 +$840 +525%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $347 −$340 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $410 −$410 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $234 −$230 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $31 +$169 +550%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $9 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $126 −$124 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $80 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $143 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $525 22h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 23h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 18¢ $92 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 36¢ $353 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $377 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 20¢ $1 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 20¢ $5 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 20¢ $0 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 20¢ $0 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 20¢ $0 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 20¢ $5 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 20¢ $38 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 20¢ $1 26h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $93 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $88 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $194 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 16¢ $32 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $50 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 31¢ $95 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $39 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 28¢ $42 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $12 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $39 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.45 · official $283.50 (match) · 529 history records