Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

35 0x35fc…7a2f other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$163 (-39%) realized −$155 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -95% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -95% what you keep after slip

Net edge-95%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$139per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 151d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-95.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	1	-94.8%	-95.3%	0%	0%	-95.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-95.3%	0%	-95.3%
10%	-95.7%	0%	-95.7%
15%	-96.1%	0%	-96.1%
20%	-96.5%	0%	-96.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -95% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$159 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage

Net worth$236

Realized−$155

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage151d

Avg bet$139

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	34¢	34¢	$148	$147	−$1 (-0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$96	$89	−$7 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18?	Jan 18	$167	−$159	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$99	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	33¢	$51	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	34¢	$100	24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	148d
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18?	SELL Yes	5¢	$8	148d
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$48	149d
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$119	150d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.99 · official $235.99 (match) · 7 history records