Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:44:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35fd…456a other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% $0
other 36% $0
politics 13% +$3
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.4%
all 51 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 2% -9.4%
10% -21.8% 2% -18.0%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage462d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -48%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -13%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 07 $8 +$1 +6%
Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will another country be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Gra May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025? May 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $10 +$2 +26%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $10 $0 -2%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 27 $6 $0 -5%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Trump x Xi talk by Friday? Apr 20 $9 $0 +2%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 16 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $30 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $30 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $14 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $14 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $30 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $15 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $16 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $11 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $20 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $0 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $5 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $33 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $33 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records