Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x35ff…bfee crypto 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,410 (-12%) realized −$1,410 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate43%75W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$762
14 days−$762
30 days−$1,362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$818
crypto 31% −$717
world 8% −$9
politics 6% +$5
sports 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -30.3% -37.0% 34% 34% -42.5%
≤30d 63 -28.1% -34.9% 38% 25% -43.2%
≤90d 111 -20.7% -28.2% 41% 23% -29.4%
all 173 -14.6% -22.7% 43% 28% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 28% -21.8%
10% -30.1% 26% -29.3%
15% -36.9% 24% -36.1%
20% -43.1% 23% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$33 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,410
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses75 / 98
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage143d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $97 +$48 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$14 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $94 +$71 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$102 +472%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $107 +$100 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $147 +$143 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$77 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$20 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$54 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $73 +$4 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $85 +$209 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $120 +$32 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $190 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $218 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $93 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $54 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $56 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $94 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $107 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $57 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $142 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $83 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $107 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 546 history records